What will this section enable me to do?

This section will provide you with the outline of the process needed to follow to create your Theory of Change. This includes who to include in that process, key stages and questions to support it, and examples of how it can be presented.

What is a Theory of Change?

A theory of change (ToC) is a map describing the change you hope to see after implementing your chosen service or programme, and how and why you expect to see it. It ‘joins the dots’ between what you plan to do, and the outcomes you hope to achieve by describing the mechanisms of change.

A good ToC should be based in science. It can be presented in a number of ways (find some examples here) and you can decide which approach is most appropriate for you, but the key ingredients are always the same.

Why is developing a Theory of Change so important?

If you have already identified a service or programme, and it doesn’t have a ToC, developing one allows you to do a vital sense check. Is your chosen model really addressing the identified problem? And is it plausible that the actions you plan to take will bring about the desired outcomes? If it does have a ToC, some work may be needed to review it and develop something relevant to your context.

If you haven’t yet identified a service or programme, a ToC is a great design tool.  It allows you to identify potential solutions to problems, the steps you need to take to bring about change, and the skills, capacity, and resources necessary for successful implementation.

In either circumstance, identifying or developing a theory of change should be the first step of the service design process.

A good ToC provides the strongest foundation for evaluation. By mapping the mechanisms, you can predict where and what changes you can expect to see and identify what to measure. You can then develop your logic model (your service blue-print), fully define what’s needed to support delivery, plan data capture and create robust plans for monitoring and evaluation.

A good ToC can be a helpful way of communicating your plans.